Welcome to my new blog dedicated to sports and such. As one would expect I'm starting with baseball, because yeah baseball.
Well as I enjoy my brief vacation from work I figure now is
as good a time as any to start my annual (half-right) baseball
predictions. I over-analyze every
transaction, have a running list of would-be division champs that I'm
constantly re-configuring only to see October roll around and realize I got
three of the six division winners right and maybe one of the wild cards. Often times, as was the case last year with
the Tigers, even when I'm right I somehow feel like it was the wrong
choice. So allow me to make some
predictions that will most likely be wrong this year. As always I will prattle on about each
division and then offer my re-cap picks at the bottom.
AL East
Well would you look at that, for the first time in what
seems like an eternity no one seems to be picking the Red Sox or Yankees to win
the division. In fact nearly every day
something happens to make the Yankees seem even older and injury prone than
before. The Red Sox continue to have
plenty of question marks, and well there's the rest of the division, younger,
loaded, and ready to dethrone the perpetual snore fests of big market baseball.
If World Series trophies were given out in winter then you
would have to like the Toronto Blue Jays chances. They've added R.A. Dickey, Melkey Cabrera, as
well as those Miami Marlins rejects Mark Beuhrle, Josh Johnson, Jose Reyes, and
Emilio Bonafacio. Now we can argue that
the Melk man might not be able to repeat his first half success of a year ago
considering most people busted for steroids tend to drop off when they don't
have their "medicine". You may
also wonder how good the Blue Jays will be considering they took roughly four
of the five best players on a Marlins team that still lost 96 games a year
ago. Can Johnson stay healthy? How will Dickey transition to the American
League? Will Reyes and Bonafacio stay
off the DL? Is Jose Buatista going to be
the Buatista of old? Although you're not
going to find any team without some question marks, but hell if you put a gun
to my head I'm picking Toronto to win this division.
In a perfect world Tampa Bay would be my pick, and I'm
willing to bet $50 that they do win the division this year for one simple
reason, I'm not picking them. It seems
every time I pick a team I happen to like they disappoint and finish third or
worse. Then I "wise up" and
stop picking them and bam division title.
It happened with last year's Oakland A's, and it seems to happen often. The Rays have added Wil Meyers and that might
be enough to push their offense up to the level their pitching has been at for
years. There's little reason to think
they can't be extremely competitive or outright win the AL East, because if
anyone can benefit from the Yankees and Red Sox deterioration it should be
Tampa, we shall see however.
Now Baltimore might currently have the best record in the
Grapefruit League but I'm not putting my faith in Spring Training standings,
for the most part. Turns out there is
very little correlation to how you play in Spring versus a potential playoff
run, although this might speak more to Baltimore's depth in their minor
leagues. I feel very apprehensive
picking Baltimore this year for two reasons.
The first was that they made virtually no upgrades during the off
season. They let a few players go,
picked up some mediocre talent and pretty much decided they were going to stand
pat. The second reason is that this was
undoubtedly the luckiest team in baseball last year. Those extra inning wins, the ridiculous
winning percentage in one run games, those are things that are nearly
impossible to duplicate two years in a row.
Maybe god is smiling upon the long suffering fans of Baltimore as
evidenced by the Ravens recent triumph, but we all know there is no god so good
luck Orioles. There might be a
significant regression this season.
I didn't forget the Yankees, oh boy what a mess. It seems everyone is already eulogizing the
Yankees 2013 season. The end of an era,
the death of the evil empire, etc. I was
willing to give the Yankees the benefit of the doubt because their rotation
still looks pretty damn good and after all they did win 95 games a year
ago. Then you saw some players depart,
Russell Martin, Rafael Soriano, Nick Swisher, Raul Ibanez are all gone. Then the body count started piling up with
A-Rod, Mark Texiera, and Curtis Granderson all starting the season on the
DL. Not to mention Jeter and Mariano
Rivera are both returning from pretty significant injuries. To put it plainly I think it's just too much
for any team to over-come. The fact that
Brian Cashman has been adamant about getting the team's payroll under $189
million by next year leads me to doubt they'll make any major in season
upgrades as well. It seems the rest of
baseball has finally caught up to the Yankees, and isn't it wonderful?
Oh Boston, I don't know what to say. They lost 93 games then proceeded to add a
bunch of regrettable free agents to their roster, and pay them quite well. Over spending for older, injury prone, past
their prime players is a recipe for disaster, especially coming off a 93 loss
season. To put this historically bad
season in perspective, the last time the Red Sox lost 93 or more games was
1965. Based on their transactions this
off season I wonder if the next time they lost 93 or more games won't be
2013. Sure they can get some pieces in
place, and maybe their rotation figures things out with former pitching coach
turned manager John Farrell. Somehow I
got a feeling this might be another long year for the Red Sox who may need to
break apart this team even more this season if
they don't get off to a hot start.
AL Central
The Kansas City Royals have the longest current playoff
drought in baseball, yes even worse than the Pirates. After a very impressive run in the 80s that
culminated in the franchise's first and only World Series win the Royals have
been to the post season zero times since.
So you can't blame the management for making some bold moves this
time. I don't know why but I was ready
to pick the Royals to be that next great team even before the James
Shields/Wade Davis acquisition. Let's
face it, nearly every year some team that missed the playoffs has a young core
catch fire at the right time and they surprise the hell out of everyone by
making the playoffs the next year. Last
year Oakland and Baltimore were the big surprises, and to a lesser extent I
suppose Washington can be included in that group. Kansas City is my pick to be that team this
year, hell it's been 27 seasons without a playoff appearance, why not now?
The greatest factor to Kansas City reaching the post season
is going to be Detroit. On paper they
are head and shoulders above the Royals and the rest of the division, hell you
can say the defending American League champs are even better going into
2013. However history has shown the
Tigers love to choke when the pressure is on.
Remember in 2008 when they traded for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle
Willis and they were going to have the new Murderer's Row? Yeah didn't work out for them did it? Call it a weird baseball intuition sort of
thing, but I say the Tigers are going to fail.
They seemed to trip and fall into the post season more because of the
White Sox running out of gas than anything Detroit did. This could be the prediction that we all
laugh at when the Tigers win 104 games and Kansas City finishes in fourth
place, but oh well.
The White Sox have continued their strategy of doing very
little in the offseason. They re-signed
a few players, picked up a new third baseman, lost A.J. and Youkilis and well I
can't say their team looks much better or worse than the club in 2012. The Sox needed a lot to go right to win the
division in '12, and it very nearly happened.
I don't see them having the same luck this time around. Sure their rotation is solid and they have a
better bullpen than the Tigers, but I can't tell you with a straight face I
think this team can beat the Tigers, or Royals for that matter. The only way the Sox win this division is if
a whole lot of things go wrong for Detroit and Kansas City.
Cleveland seemed to be heading in the right direction, which
is to say rebuilding for the future when they traded Shin Soo-Choo. They also mercifully parted ways with Travis
Hafner and Grady Sizemore, two oft-injured former stars who will never, ever
regain their all star form. Then they
decided to over pay for Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn. I'm not sure where they see themselves in
2013, but there is a very good chance both those moves will haunt this team for
the next several years. Their rotation
looks bad, I've never been a big Chris Perez fan, and the money and draft
compensation they gave up for Bourn and Swisher could hurt this team going
forward. Maybe things work out and the
Indians make some bold moves. They have
gotten off to pretty good starts the last two years but faded down the
stretch. Maybe Francona and their new
out fielders are enough to change the tide, but this is a Cleveland team we're
talking about, and you never, ever bet on a Cleveland team to win.
I can't tell you how happy I've been to see Minnesota be the
worst team in the American League. After
years of tormenting the Sox only to get their asses swept by the Yankees in the
first round, they are taking their poor post season performance to the regular
season. For some perspective in the
Twins last 22 playoff games they're 3-19.
When you consider that their two best players (based on wins above
replacement) for the past two seasons were Denard Span and Scott Baker, who are
both playing for new teams this year you can wonder if the Twins won't be even
worse this year. Who knows if Mauer and
Morneau can stay healthy ever, although Joe Mauer's 147 games last year was a
career high? I see another long year in
Minnesota, but hey at least the Astros are in the American League so you'll
have some company at the bottom.
AL West
There used to be some saying about "fool me
once". How did it go? Who cares, I'm buying this team again. A better saying in baseball at least is you
can't win a division in April, but you can lose it. The Angels got off to a dreadful start and no
matter how much better they played once Mike Trout came up, they still couldn't
reach the post season. A year removed,
and a stacked lineup got even better, what's not to love? For all the criticisms of Josh Hamilton he
still hit 43 home runs with 128 RBIs, those numbers aren't easy to come
by. This lineup looks like it can outhit
any of it's starting rotation questions.
Again I feel Texas has lost just too much, maybe their young prospects
step up, but my money is on Anaheim this year.
A few years ago the Angels were the top dogs of the AL
West. Then year by year they started to
lose players. It seems Texas has taken
their place. Joining the already
departed CJ Wilson and Cliff Lee are Michael Young, Josh Hamilton, and Mike
Napoli. Sure they won a lot of games
last year, and they have 6 prospects in the MLB top 100, but do they have
someone who can hit 43 home runs with 128 RBI's? Will this team ever have a true number one
starter? I don't doubt that the Rangers
may be good, hell even better than ever is a possibility but for a team that
perpetually missed out on every free agent they were chasing I wonder if this
won't be a step down for Texas. The
future is bright, but 2013 is cloudy.
You would never know it but Oakland won the division last
year. Crazier things have happened, but
no one is giving this team any credit for their accomplishment. Unlike previous years when Billy Beane and
company relentlessly turned over the roster, only a few minor changes were made
this off season. For the first time
since Jason Giambi was playing there the A's have someone who can hit for power
consistently in Yoenis Cespedes, and Josh Reddick was even better in his first
season with Oakland. This might be the
beginning of a new run of Oakland dominance and the long awaited emergence of
moneyball at its finest. However this
could easily have been one of those rare fluke seasons that will take Oakland
five years to repeat. Considering how
often I've picked this team to win I should be ecstatic they're finally good
again for real, but I'm not sure I can trust them just yet.
The Mariners probably made the most upgrades of any team out
west. This team desperately needed some
offense and they went out and got it.
They've added Kendrys Morales, Jason Bay, Michael Morse, and brought
back Raul Ibanez. Collectively this
quartet might be just enough to get the Mariners out of 14th place in runs
scored. Are these frontline moves that
will bring the Mariners to the post season promised land? We'll see about that, but they should be
better and following a 75 win season I wouldn't be surprised if this team finds
themselves with a winning record, but it's hard to put them above the other
three teams in their division.
Oh what's that you say, there are four other teams in the AL
West now? Well I'll be damned. Ok re-alignment aside which should make for
some interesting year-round inter-league match ups, the Astros are a long ways
away from being good. They completely
gutted their team, hit bottom, and then gutted the team some more to stay on
the bottom. It's fair to change leagues
and treat yourselves more as an expansion team.
You stockpile enough top picks you should make an impact eventually, but
most of Houston's potential saviors have some developing to do. This team will get eaten alive in the
American League and don't be surprised if it's not the third year in a row they
have the worst record in baseball.
NL East
Ah what a difference a year makes. A year removed from a 102 win season I was sure
the Phillies would be back in the post season, winning their sixth division
title in a row. Sure we knew the
Nationals would be good someday, but so good so soon? Well heading into 2013 I'm willing to put my
money on the Washington Nationals to win the World Series. Yes I said it, the Nationals are going to win
the World Series in 2013. I should look
at the 2011 Phillies as a prime example of when the best team in baseball gets
better on paper, but that was a team dealing with some significant injuries,
whose stars were all getting up there in age.
The Nationals seem to have assembled a team of young players who all
seem to be in their prime at the right time.
They have the added luxury of Dan Haren who may or may not regain his
all-star form, and they made a nice upgrade with Rafael Soriano. It's hard to think of any team winning more
games in 2013.
I caught a little of the Braves-Phillies spring training
game on ESPN this week and saw just enough to watch Justin Upton launch a home
run what seemed like 500 feet. After a
massively disappointing 2012, Upton seems poised to be a serious MVP candidate,
and the trio of his brother B.J. and Jayson Heyward make up arguably the best
outfield in all of baseball. After a 14
year run of winning the division the Braves might very well embark on a similar
streak of winning the wild card. They
should be just as good as they were a year ago when they won 94 games, but I
don't see them getting past the Nationals this year either. If you're a WAR guy, it might be interesting
to note that Michael Bourn was their best player a year ago.
It might seem boring to predict things this way but I
wouldn't be surprised at all if the AL East ends up with the exact same order
this year. Like the Yankees, the
Phillies suddenly seem really old but they each sport a pretty solid rotation
front. I'd argue that the Phillies big
three of Hammels, Halladay, and Lee can still outpitch anyone in baseball. When the Phillies started to get healthy they
nearly made it to the post season, so perhaps this group has one more run in
them. After all most of the pieces of
that 102 win team are still in place and it might surprise some of you to know
they haven't had a losing season since 2002.
I wouldn't be shocked if they steal the division away or even grab a
wild card spot but some horrible things would probably have to happen to
Washington for this team to catch them.
Then there's the Mets.
Be patient Mets' fans things will be looking up soon. After resolving their legal woes, the
ownership has promised that the Mets will start spending like the Mets gain,
which is to say recklessly on bad players, but they might start making a push
for some free agents come next winter especially if the Yankees keep their
payroll slashing promise. However after
losing a Cy Young winner, and considering that Johann Santana is again hurt I
don't see 2013 being particularly good for this team. Look for some development and maybe for a few
improvements incrementally but I'd be beyond shocked if this team even finished
third.
If there's a god of baseball somewhere the Marlins will lose
162 games this year. Jeffrey Loria has
done more to alienate any and all potential fans of his horrible franchise than
any sports owner in recent memory. After
milking the state of Florida for tax money to build a much needed new ballpark
and spending lavishly on free agents, he promptly sent all of them packing as well
as nearly every recognizable player on the team. Poor Giancarlo Stanton is left holding the
bag for the worst franchise in baseball.
So for the like 3 or 4 people left in the world who still call
themselves a Marlins fan, brace yourself this team might rival the Astros as
the worst in baseball. They lost 93
games with Reyes, Buehrle, Johnson, Bonfacio, Buck, Sanchez, Ramirez, etc. All of these men have since found new homes
and been replaced with prospects and much cheaper players. Oh and do you want another reason to hate the
Marlins, yeah they're threatening to sue season ticket holders who had the
nerve to complain about their obstructed seats. There ought to be plenty of empty seats to
pick from this year. Fuck Jeffrey Loria,
he gets my vote for worst owner in sports.
NL Central
The Cardinals were recently named the best franchise in
baseball by ESPN. This has to do with
the enormous depth of their farm system but also alludes to the fact that the
Cardinals are ALWAYS good. They haven't
lost 90 or more games since 1990. Keep
this in mind, Kyle Lohse who was statistically their best pitcher was let go
and according to Lohse was never even offered a contract by the Cardinals other
than the one year qualifying offer to get draft compensation. Then Chris Carpenter does what Chris
Carpenter does best and gets himself hurt for the entire year, and this team is
still set with their rotation, talk about depth. I've been picking this team to win the
division for years, and I'm usually right.
So sometimes they get a wild card, what of it, I think the Cardinals are
going to be just fine, and I'll explain why later.
Oh Dusty Baker.
When's the last time a Dusty Baker led team finished in first place two
consecutive years? If you guessed never
then you are correct. He had a very
impressive run with the Giants, but rarely does lightning seem to strike
twice. Oh and you may have heard that five
pitchers made 161 of their 162 starts. Mark
my words those innings are going to catch up big time. There's some internal struggling about
Aroldis Chapman's move to the starting rotation, but seriously it seems mathematically
impossible for this team to be that healthy again. Besides I have a long standing policy of
never betting on a Dusty Baker team to win.
This could finally, and I mean finally be the year for the
Pirates. You got to go all the way back
to the first
George Bush's presidency to find the last winning Pirates
team. The last two years we've seen the
Pirates well over .500 only to collapse in hilarious fashion. In the process they've just added to their
own major league record of futility.
Odds are they finally get over the hump, but without the Astros around
to score some easy victories I'm hesitant to pick them to win much. Put it this way, I wouldn't be surprised if
the Pirates are that next great "come from nowhere" team to make the
post season, but I don't think any of us will buy into this team until the day
comes when victory number 81 is won.
Like Philadelphia, the Milwaukee Brewers made a pretty
impressive run in the second half of the year last season. Unlike the Phillies they don't have nearly as
many health/age questions heading into 2013.
Ryan Braun is still one of the very best hitters in baseball, biogenesis
or not. Their rotation remains an issue
and you don't exactly find Zack Greinke replacements easily. The Brewers could make a run, but I don't see
it happening. I'm hating on the Reds
because that's what I do but if we're comparing rosters there's no way the
Brewers can match up with them or the Cardinals this year.
So some people in baseball think the Cubs could win 75-80
games this year, keep dreaming. We all
know how bad the Cubs have been historically, but you have to go all the way
back to 1962 to find the last year they lost over 100 games. I'm beyond thrilled to hear how many people
are on board with the "fuck Wrigley and let's build a new ball park in
Rosemont" talk that's going on, but I have a hard time seeing it
happen. I also have a really hard time
seeing the Cubs win more than 62 games this year. This team is going to be bad, and again no
Astros to get a couple of wins out of.
Hopefully they purge more high contracts and re-load even more
prospects, but you're going to have to wait for 2014 or possibly 2015 for this
team to be relevant again.
NL West
Now we come to the last division in baseball that's been
agonizingly painful for me to pick.
There's a really good part of me that wants to laugh at the Dodgers as
they crash and burn through a very, very expensive debacle. However this team has too much damn
talent. Remember when the Yankees just
missed the playoffs in 2008 and then went out spending a ton of money on
Sabathia, Burnett, and Texiera? What
happened the next year, they won the World Series. I'm not saying the Dodgers are going to win
it all, but can you find a weakness on that team? Their lineup looks like it might score 10
runs a game. You have a virtually
unbeatable 1-2 punch with Clayton Kershaw and Greinke in your rotation. Sure Hanley Ramirez might have a bad thumb,
and Carl Crawford is probably going to huff dong again for another injury
riddled year, but Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and company can
certainly carry the load. Not to mention
the fact that ownership has pretty much said money is no object, so if there's
a problem later in the season, don't be surprised if they find a way to fix it.
Once again it seems the defending champs are being
considered an afterthought. Unlike in
2010, the Giants went to great lengths to pretty much bring back the entire
team that won it all a year ago. There's
no reason to think they won't do it again.
Obviously some questions arise, like how will Matt Cain hold up all
year, can Barry Zito continue his revival, is Lincecum back to his Cy
Young-ways? Still I would argue that the
best rivalry in baseball in 2013 is going to be Giants/Dodgers. I most definitely can see a wild card coming
from this division, and hell when it's all said and done the Giants just might
have another ring, but I think the division belongs to the Dodgers this year.
Arizona has been around for only 15 seasons and they've won
the division five times. So if you
figure every three years their due, then 2014 should be a good year for
them. The division seems to
devastatingly top heavy that I just can't see Arizona getting over those two
beasts, especially with the departure of their best player Justin Upton. Ian Kennedy saw a slight regression in his
numbers last year, so I'm still not sure if 2011 was a fluke or 2012 was just a
down year. The team is young, and they
did make a nice run late last year as well, but this seems like a middle of the
road team to me.
The Colorado Rockies were damn near as bad as the Cubs last
year. After down years from nearly
everybody, injuries galore, and failed expectations you have to believe this
team has a chip on it's shoulder for 2013.
Since 2012 was the worst year of the franchise I'm betting on them
improving this year. However when you
lose 98 games there isn't much to do but improve. The Todd Helton era appears to be nearing its
conclusion but the Troy Tulowitzki era is ready to be re-ignited.
Well here I was wondering if the Padres were going to take
that next step and their best player Chase Headley gets himself hurt. How many Padres can you name right now? Not too many I'd wager, and there you have
it. This team is full of some
potentially promising young players but I think they're a few years away from
making any impact.
Re-Cap
AL East - Toronto Blue Jays
AL Central - Kansas City Royals
AL West - LA Angels
AL Wildcard - Detroit Tigers/Texas Rangers
NL East - Washington Nationals
NL Central - St. Louis Cardinals
NL West - LA Dodgers
NL Wildcard - Atlanta Braves/San Francisco Giants
So I'm willing to bet I get 5-6 of these teams right, can't wait to find out.
